Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.343742 0.391763 0.443908 0.504717 0.573668 0.649409 0.738910
2025-09-07 0.278744 0.343506 0.419280 0.514410 0.630600 0.767856 0.942306
2025-09-14 0.217620 0.288021 0.376191 0.494569 0.649230 0.844341 1.109166
2025-09-21 0.176627 0.249833 0.347501 0.487052 0.681101 0.941195 1.316238
2025-09-28 0.144193 0.217081 0.320254 0.476506 0.706777 1.033309 1.531344
2025-10-05 0.125884 0.200827 0.312897 0.492024 0.770562 1.186586 1.854759
2025-10-12 0.107265 0.180772 0.296553 0.491264 0.809724 1.309141 2.151057
2025-10-19 0.093470 0.165876 0.285622 0.496851 0.859067 1.453583 2.502169
2025-10-26 0.083347 0.155293 0.279873 0.509717 0.921746 1.627498 2.926029
2025-11-02 0.070439 0.137561 0.259050 0.493085 0.930908 1.712151 3.208967
2025-11-09 0.058662 0.119855 0.235421 0.467457 0.919615 1.758573 3.429238
2025-11-16 0.050799 0.108330 0.221436 0.457594 0.935840 1.856445 3.757500
2025-11-23 0.043804 0.097604 0.207818 0.447332 0.951809 1.959989 4.120285
2025-11-30 0.039642 0.092120 0.203937 0.456398 1.008424 2.151672 4.688975
2025-12-07 0.033852 0.082024 0.188760 0.439066 1.007076 2.225680 5.025824
2025-12-14 0.029748 0.075038 0.179224 0.432599 1.028364 2.350353 5.490479
2025-12-21 0.026049 0.068329 0.169208 0.423366 1.041925 2.460064 5.938416
2025-12-28 0.024244 0.065974 0.169002 0.437302 1.111645 2.705515 6.733590
2026-01-04 0.021840 0.061634 0.163263 0.436708 1.146170 2.874173 7.371741
2026-01-11 0.020003 0.058465 0.159951 0.441747 1.195564 3.085342 8.144987
2026-01-18 0.018651 0.056391 0.159151 0.453257 1.263456 3.351601 9.095948
2026-01-25 0.016373 0.051236 0.149235 0.438464 1.259272 3.434812 9.585703
2026-02-01 0.014096 0.045643 0.137170 0.415644 1.229530 3.447240 9.889222